Lots of Polls Today

by CAchemist, Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:02:22 PM EST

Lots of polls have come out today so I thought we could put them all in one place.

Lets start with daily tracking:

Rasmussen shows Obama up 48 to 45 (with leaners)

Gallup shows a 45/45 tie

We have a national poll today from ABC and WaPo

Obama 49, McCain 45 LV

Obama 47, McCain 40, Barr 4, Nader 4 RV

Obama 48, McCain 42, Barr 3, Nader 3 LV

Now for State Polls

Lots of Mason Dixon polls (no links yet)

Nevada:  McCain leads 46%-39%
ARIZONA: McCain leads 47%-41%.
COLORADO: Obama leads 46%-43%.  
NEW MEXICO: McCain leads 45%-41%

Quinnipiac disagrees on Colorado

McCain leads 47%-46% in their poll

Lastly, PPP has polled virginia

Obama leads 47%-45%.

So this is where we are just pre-Biden and pre-convention.  Looks like we have some work to do.  

Make Calls.  Donate.  Convince your friends.




Tags: polls, mcsame, obama, president (all tags)

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Re: Lots of Polls Today (2.00 / 1)

I like the look of that six point gap in Arizona.


by Cincinnatus on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:05:00 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

Hopefully we won't need Az, but it is nice to see.


McCain = bad Obama = good
by CAchemist on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:06:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't believe it (none / 0)

I think the Mason polls are crap. There's no way Obama is suddenly down in New Mexico and down only six in Arizona and down so much in Nevada.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 04:29:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Incredible - McSame under 50% in AZ (2.00 / 1)

he's been representing AZ since 1982, and not only that, Bush carried AZ by 11 points in 2004, and yet McHomes is only at 47%!!!

Can you imagine if a poll, any poll, said Obama was at 47% in Illinois - they'd break into every news channel with breathless around-da-clock reports.

L'bruel media, my aszz.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 04:50:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible - McSame under 50% in AZ (none / 0)

A lot of people in AZ are still pissed off over his support for last year's immigration compromise.


by RandyMI on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 05:53:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

For people that are obsessed with the map at the top.  Virginia should be blue.  Since we have two Colorado polls today that disagree, I would turn it yellow.

That makes the race:

Obama 278
McCain 251
Undeclared 9


McCain = bad Obama = good
by CAchemist on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:05:20 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

We do the poll with the latest date.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 06:04:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

That makes sense.  I didn't check actual polling dates.

 


McCain = bad Obama = good
by CAchemist on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 06:05:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

I really want to see the cross-tabs on the Mason-Dixon ones. The Arizona/Colorado ones seem off from what's expected right now for Obama, while the New Mexico and Nevada ones seem way off in McCain's favor.


by Gorelab on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:10:35 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

Hard to imagine Arizona being closer than Nevada.  Similarly hard to imagine Obama winning Colorado but losing New Mexico.  I thought Mason Dixon was supposed to be fairly respected...


by Skaje on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:25:21 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

I think the cross-tabs will be important.  Likely voter models always give really screwy results before October, when they revise the models based on new registration, etc.


McCain = bad Obama = good
by CAchemist on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:35:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

In a related topic, is this going to have to be the last election in which pollsters use landlines?  I mean, they're no longer going to be accurate for prediction purposes, so it seems like they will need a new model, especially if the youth vote without landlines comes out in force here and blows up all the predictions.


by ProgressiveDL on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:42:20 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

According to cell to landline comparison polls young people with landlines vote substantially similarly to cell-phone only young people.
So far the polling firms are on pretty solid ground weighting land-line young people to account for the missing cell-phone people.

The rising number of refusals are harder to compensate for, if anything that is what will force a change in polling methodology.


by souvarine on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

I'm not convinced that the weighting has been large enough and I think young people are far more engaged and likely to vote (and vote Dem) than the pollsters have so far accounted for.  We'll see in about 3 months.


by ProgressiveDL on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 04:00:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

The mason dixon polls look like crap.


by khyber900 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 04:40:03 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

Real Claer Politics

Election 2008 Obama McCain Spread
RCP National Average 45.3 43.6 Obama +1.7
Favorable Ratings +19.7 +17.0 Obama +2.7
Intrade Market Odds 60.7 37.2 -

Electoral College   Obama    McCain  Toss Ups
RCP Electoral Count  228      174      136
No Toss Up States    273      265       -

Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
Ohio                  44.7 45.7 McCain +1.0
Michigan              46.0 42.0 Obama +4.0
Minnesota             47.5 43.0 Obama +4.5
Colorado              45.8 45.4 Obama +0.4
Virginia              46.0 46.0 Tie
Florida               44.8 47.4 McCain +2.6


"They are ever so much nicer at Tiffany's!"
by epiphany on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 04:46:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mason Dixon Dated 8/13-15 (none / 0)

That was a low point of Obama's polling, and the polls were concluded over a week ago.

In the case of Colorado that is too bad actually, I would have liked those numbers to me more current than Quinn.


by Davidsfr on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 05:25:41 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

Odds results from Mason-Dixon. How can Obama be leading Colorado but trail in New Mexico?


by RandyMI on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 05:51:07 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

The Mason Dixon polls are old--over a week old.
I'd be more concerned about the Gallup tracker.

Very unlikely Obama wins CO and loses NM.

And AZ is wierd also.  


by esconded on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 06:03:24 PM EST

Our work does not end (none / 0)

until election day, then we need keep working and staying active!


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 06:11:25 PM EST

Re: Lots of Polls Today (none / 0)

The Mason Dixon results are pretty strange - the New Mexico poll in particular seems to be way off.  I take it that Mason Dixon's strength is in polling Southern states?  Regardless, more needs to be done, and I trust that it will be.


by rfahey22 on Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 06:18:51 PM EST


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